How close would you say we are to actually getting to play games like this?

Game developers are not going to make contents so rare that only 1 player out of couple millions of players in the span of several years will be able to play. Just saying. It doesn't make any sense economically.

It's like SAO all over again. It's good for story telling, but these MMO games do not make any sense from the design perspective.

50+ years min. VR at this level is still at sci fi ground

Lmao. Its hilarious reading about this in this particular story because we have deets like this:



Betcha you wont wanna play now huh?

Not even close.
Fully transferring consciousness into virtual world is still science fiction territory.

@arielcw Nah, we would need breakthrough and 50 is necessarily bad prediction, but if really talk about "minimum" it could be less then 15 years.

@Tenzen12 50+ is the bare minimum. 15 is wishful thinking because the timescale of the necessary processes would push it out way past 15 years. First you'd need a breakthrough in computers. Then you'd need to create the tools to make those computers. Then you'd need to use those computers to increase the research speed on the brain (we only know 10% of it, and we will need to know a LOT more of it before we can even think of full dive. Then we'd need to invent technology that allows us to put our consciousness into the computer. Then we'd need to hope that no government agencies would take an interest in this cause full dive sounds like it could be potentially dangerous. Then we'd need to train people to program for it, because this won't run on Unity or Unreal.

Seriously there is an order to this and each one takes a ton of time to do. Quantum computers which are way more simple than this have been in design since the 80's and they are just starting to figure it out some 43 years later. So do you really believe that 50 years is a bad prediction? I haven't even added the potential for patent trolling. You know why 3d printing just became big. There were patents made in the 80's that completely stifled the industry until they expired in the early 2000's. If that happens you can kiss the whole idea of it ever coming out in your life good bye.

@Raistlarn First of all we don't need breakthrough in computers. In that regard we have all we need already. Graphics and physics simulations are already good enough. Well noone would get angry if got better, but it's certainly close enough.

Second that "we only using 10% of brain" nonsense is already debunked for decades. Actually It was never real science claim. It came from sci-fi writer John W. Cambel and ever since it was adopted basically as popculture slogan and it was never anything more.

Third. We will (probably) never "put consciousnesses into computer" That's pure sci-fi. Having electronic interface between brain and computer in other hand is not that big deal. We have technology that can send visual image from camera (which means generated image would work too) directly into brain. Last time I checked it was only 100 pixels but we know there is room for growth. There is also neuralink that is currently tested that would make more accurate output then using standard EEG electrodes (which btw can already be used play some games just by using thoughts. What we need is normalisation of these technologies and for them become economically viable. If that happens these technologies would improve much faster as competition in that field grows.

And lastly I don't think 50 years is bad prediction. 50 years AT MINIMUM in other hand certainly is.

@Tenzen12

1. I never said that "we use 10% of our brain" hogwash. That's you misreading what I said. I said we only know 10% of our brain. In other words we only have 10% of our brain figured out.
   
   
2. You didn't even try to disprove my arguments. You just went "we won't need to have any computer breakthroughs" without having anything to back this up.
   
   
3. You completely forgot what this forum is about. It is not about neuralink (which isn't vr,) it is not about vr. This forum is about FULL-DIVE VR like in Shangri-la Frontier. We are nowhere near full-dive vr. 50 years minimum is a bare minimum for that, and IT WILL require breakthroughs in computer tech. Hell it will require breakthroughs in multiple different fields. Neuaralink when it becomes fully ready will be one of those, but right now it is only in the testing phase, and should stay there until they can prove they won't cause irreparable damage.
   

As a game developer in learning (im still learning so be nice if I say bs), we are still far away from it, however it's likely an achievable future, there are many things to take in consideration:

It takes several years to develop a big game, and the features required to make a game of such caliber are hard to achieve, mmorpg games need a heck lot of work to maintain the public, constant updates, many servers to be placed around the world, cool features, vr also means 3d environment, in some way it's easier than 2d but it's insanely easy to screw it up.

The online part just makes everything even more complicated, but it might not be hard to work around it

If we consider the ability to move using your body, not a controller or keyboard, it can very easy lead to several accidents because so much action is going on, there are places with special equipments that allow the player to actually run and do irl movements that transfer into the game in a safe way, this however is insanely expensive and definitely not affordable by the average person

Our technology isn't developed enough to make a game with so many things put together, the best game consoles out there might not even be able to properly run a game like that

Also just launching game like this in the market, you would need a lot of money in return to be able to even keep the game running (something that made many games shut down), possibly leading to a pay to win game

Final thoughts, yes it's possible, but not anytime soon

SAO thought it would be 2022 and we've not gone that far into a full VR at all maybe 10 - 15 years is my guess and even then idk completely where we're at rn for VR other then graphics

this is all just my best guess. I'm NOT a professional or a scientist in ANY of these fields.

Full dive would need to be controlled by the brain so basically down the line from current Neurolink stuff.

The NPC's could be things like ChatGPT but another 3 or 4 versions down. enough to really give appropriate responses but only knowledgeable about things in the game world. These have been growing by leaps and bounds pretty quickly, so it might not take too long (2-5years) to get a single NPC of this level with a tailored personality, but it'll be interesting if we decide they should interact with each other to make the world seem more alive or only with Player characters.

As far as high fidelity 3d spaces, the level we have is pretty good and we have good tech to only need to render specifically what our eyes are focusing on to save processing power.

as for the avatars looking good...🤷🏾‍♂️ as different groups try to make the metaverse a thing, we'll see how that improves.

sound would need to be directional and updated a lot as we instruct our character to turn, I think we have most of that covered. we definitely have proximity, and separately we definitely have versions of 3d audio, I just don't know if we have them dynamically where the listener is moving in an environment.

biggest issue might be power. I just don't know how much processing it will take to do all these things simultaneously while also very closely adding in the presence of other players that is true to whatever instructions They're giving as well. watching someone glitch around would need to be a thing of the past. so it's getting current MMOs beyond the level of fighting and racing games in that respect. I don't know if that's even possible since information will always have to travel.

everything together anywhere from 10 to 20 years, I guess.

my question is, do we get it before or after the hoverboards AS promised in back to the future.